MOST RECENT WORKING PAPER:
A Model of Secular Stagnation (with Neil Mehrotra, April 2014)
Time Consistency and the Duration of Government Debt: A Signalling Theory of Quantitative Easing (with Saroj Bhattarai and Bulat Gafarov, September 2013)
The Inflation Output Tradeoff Revisited (with Marc Giannoni)
WORKING PAPERS UNDER SUBMISSION:
Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing (Redux)? (with Saroj Bhattarai and Raphael Schoenle, R&R AER)
The Great Escape? A Quantitative Evaluation of the Fed's Liquidity Facilities (with Marco Del Negro, Andrea Ferrero, and Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, R&R AER)
The Paradox of Toil
Can Structural Reforms Help Europe? (with Andrea Ferrero and Andrea Raffo), Journal of Monetary Economics, forthcoming.
Deficits, Public Debt Dynamics and Tax and Spending Multipliers (with Matthew Denes and Sophia Gilbukh), Economic Journal, 123 (566), 133-163, 2013.
Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo approach
(with Paul Krugman), Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127(3): 1469-1513, August 2012.
Was the New Deal Contractionary? American Economic Review, 102(1): 524-555, February 2012.
Fiscal Multipliers and Policy Coordination in J. Gali, editor, Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, Santiago: Central Bank of Chile, October 2010.
What Fiscal Policy is Effective at Zero Interest Rates? NBER Macroeconomic Annual, 2010.
A Political Agency Theory of Central Bank Independence (with Eric Le Borgne), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 42, No. 4, June 2010.
Great Expectations and the End of the Depression, American Economic Review, 2008: 90(4).
The Mistake of 1937: A General Equilibrium Analysis(with Benjamin Pugsley), Monetary and Economic Studies, 24(S-1), December 2006
The Deflation Bias and Committing to being Irresponsible, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 36 (2), 2006. Extended with Appendix
Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Liquidity Trap (with Michael Woodford),NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004.
Policy Options in a Liquidity trap (with Michael Woodford), American Economic Review, P&P, 2004: 94(2).
The Zero Interest-Rate Bound and Optimal Monetary Policy (with Michael Woodford), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2003:1.
PUBLISHED COMMENTARIES, SURVEYS:
The Liquidity Trap, the New Palgrave Dictionary in Economics, 2cond edition.
Comment on Macroeconomic Policy in the European Monetary Union, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004.
Comment on Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Low Inflation Economy with Learning, Bank of Korea Annual Conference Volume, 2006.
A Reply to Steven Horwitz Commentary on “Great Expectations and the End of the Depression, Economic Journal Watch, September, 2010.
Commentary on Price-Level Targeting and Stabilization Policy by A. Berentsen and C. Waller, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, October 2011, vol 43., p. 581-588.
Commentary on Optimal Stabilization Policy by G. Mankiw and M. Winzierl, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, spring 2011.
Commentary on How Flexible Can Inflation Targeting be and Still Work? by Kenneth N. Kuttner and Adam S Posen, International Journal of Central Banking, Volume 9, Supplement 1, January 2012.
Comment on Fiscal Policy as a Stabilization Tool by Antonias Fatas and Ilian Mihov, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, forthcoming.
Fiscal Policy, Public Debt and the World Crisis (prepared for Berlin symposium "Government Debt in Democracies: Causes, Effects, and Limits"), German Economic Review, forthcoming.
UNPUBLISHED WORKING PAPERS, NOTES, BLOGS, etc:
Commodity Prices and the Mistake of 1937: Would Modern Economists Make the Same Mistake?, Liberty Street Economics Blog, June 2011.
A Comment on Casey Mullingan's test of the Paradox of Toil, preliminary note, May 2010
A Bayesian Approach to Estimating Tax and Spending Multipliers, with Matthew Denes, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report, No. 403, November 2009.
Optimal Time-Consistent Monetary Policy in the New Keynesian Model with Repeated Simultaneous Play (with Eric T. Swanson), mimeo, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2008.
Does Excess Liquidity Pose a Threat in Japan?, (with Jonathan Ostry), IMF Policy Discussion Paper PDP/05/5, April 2005.
How to Fight Deflation at Zero Nominal Interest Rates: Committing to Being Irresponsible, IMF Working Paper WP/03/64, May 2003
Committing to Being Irresponsible: Deficit Spending to Escape a Liquidity Trap , mimeo, Princeton University, November 2001
Real Government Spending in a Liquidity Trap , mimeo, Princeton University, November 2001